Posted by
JP on Monday, July 28, 2008 9:44:20 AM
by John Mark Reynolds [author,
academic]
Bottom
Line: Obama should be winning easily. Instead, he is running a campaign
that is still messaging to the already converted. While McCain is not
running a great campaign, he is running a steady one. Senator Obama is
blowing it.
Argument:
Polls
can fluctuate, but at present Senator Obama seems unable to close the
deal with the American electorate. There is no respectable poll that
shows Obama getting over half the vote. Almost all of them show him
getting a good bit less.
Following
my rule of thumb set at the start of the race, as a challenger Senator
Obama is losing when he dips under a five point lead in the polls this
early. Why? Obama is a challenger in a year for challengers and poll
weakness early on is dangerous. Ask Jimmy Carter who won, but barely in
a race that he should have put away. I think this was because Carter
never expanded his base, because he believed (with everyone else) that
he could not lose in a Democrat year. [more]